UFOs, UAPs, and Drones, Oh My
I’ve had this post in the back of my mind for quite a while, but some recent events (Jersey drones, people having unhinged UFO/UAP takes on Twitter), have nudged me to finally write it, so here you go :)
First, I need to get a few points out of the way, and then we can dive in:
I’m familiar with, and generally agree with, the Drake equation. If the Universe really is as large as it seems, the odds are vastly in favor of other intelligent life being out there somewhere. “Awful waste of space” and all that!
I’m *extremely* familiar with the UFO history and literature. I’ve read a ton of books, watched documentaries, scoured YouTube channels, you name it. I know the space very, very well.
I loved the X-Files growing up, I loved Contact, I’m a big fan of sci-fi in general (books, movies, TV, the whole enchilada), and I’m 100% open to the idea of aliens in our galaxy. Perfectly reasonable, highly likely.
My grandpa was stationed at Roswell in the early 50s (Air Force Colonel, retired, deceased now sadly), and I have friends and family closely tied to various military and aerospace contractors (Raytheon, Lockheed, etc.). So, some of this hits pretty close to home.
I’ve seen some weird shit that I personally don’t have concrete explanations for. A black triangle, 3 lights, silent, no prop wash or visible propulsion, as well as a very high altitude fast moving light, far too much movement /speed / rapid change of direction to be a plane, satellite, or space station. Both of these were seen in Utah, ~60-70 miles east of the Dugway proving grounds.
All of that said…I still think it is VERY unlikely that aliens have visited us, which is the point of this post.
Now, Occam’s Razor is overused, and often misused, but if ever it applied anywhere, it applies here, in the sense that the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions is more likely to be correct.
So, which of the following strikes you as most likely:
Aliens
An advanced civilization learns enough math, physics, and engineering to create craft capable of withstanding the rigors of interstellar travel, with passengers.
In the vastness of space, they happen to find our little planet, which, while not quite outer rim, isn’t exactly galactic center either. And with a radio bubble of maybe 130 light years at best, and more likely ~50 light years (probably far less with signal degradation), well, we’re not easy to spot and basically invisible from far away. Remember, the Milky Way is ~105,700 light years across.
Said aliens (supposedly multiple different species) come here (with multiple ships and ship-types no less) to investigate, at least 78 years ago (Roswell), and despite all their advanced technology enabling interstellar travel, manage to crash right off the bat…repeatedly, if accounts are to be believed.
The ones that don’t crash do nothing to recover their people or the evidence, as we have many claims of retrieved bodies (some living) and retrieved craft.
It takes 22 years after Roswell for us to even get to space, and there’s no solid evidence of big tech tree leaps associated with this supposed interstellar craft, which, if they do use advanced physics like anti-gravity and gravity-propulsion and FTL, well, surely we’d have derived something notable.
These aliens, and others, keep coming here, being seen, and crashing, for 78 fucking years, without initiating general contact (even if they had done so privately with governments, surely they wouldn’t still be flying around visibly and disturbing the populace and farting around military bases.)
OR…
PsyOp
In 1938, War of the Worlds broadcasts on the radio and causes a panic. The government learns that alien fiction is VERY effective as a means of manipulating humans. Scared people are easy to control, and willing to give up freedom for safety. This is PsyOps 101.
1939-1945 we get WW2, where air fighting goes through rapid advances, including the first use of unmanned drones. Lots of sightings of UFOs during WW2, such as the Foo Fighters…
WW2 ends, but the government A. has a lot of cool air tech under way, and B. needs reasons to keep developing it and getting budget for it.
1947, what is most likely an experimental craft of some sort, crashes in Roswell. This could have been a purposeful or accidental crash. People leap to calling it a UFO. (Go look at the Avrocar, from 1958.)
The government engages in a “clumsy” coverup. Nothing to see here. With the effect that now everyone thinks there are aliens and UFOs because, obvious coverup (or what I’d call a PsyOp).
The public really latches onto this, so the Air Force spins up Project Blue Book, which conveniently debunks most of the UFO / UAP sightings…most, but not all ;)
If there might be aliens out there, nobody is going to complain too hard about military budget to improve our air power, or trading some freedoms for safety…
The government continues to see that UFOs and aliens make a PERFECT cover story for top secret craft, both tested domestically, and deployed elsewhere. “It’s not us, it’s aliens!” They could stage crashes, use fake bodies, dress pilots in UFO suits, even stage abductions to further cement the story (and if you think the gov doesn’t abduct its citizens and do shit to them, uhh, go look up MKUltra).
This would explain perfectly why UFOs often show up near military bases and nuclear facilities…those are exactly the places we’d want our craft to show up. If there’s a track record of that happening, stories of things malfunctioning, no taking credit for it…well, that’s an awful lot of plausible deniability. If we developed tech to spy on and interfere with foreign nuclear facilities, making it look like aliens is actually brilliant cover.
In this scenario, any “leakers” or “whistleblowers” could either A. be doing their jobs to perpetuate the cover, or B. have fallen for the PsyOp because they aren’t read in to the programs, or C. selected as patsies because of the right psychological profiles, and used unknowlingly to perpetuate the cover.
Advanced characteristics of these craft could then be advances in air power (Top Secret craft are very often 10-20 years ahead of commercially available tech), or they could be lies and trickery designed to maintain the cover. What some people want to call gravitational lensing could just be various IR / RF disruption tech. Lots of possibilities in this bucket.
Grifters, seeing lots of believers and the opportunity to make money, join the fray, frothing up the gullible for their own benefit, and likely helping the government with their cover story in the process. Win-Win lol.
So, which do you think is more likely? Aliens, or PsyOp?
For me, I heavily lean PsyOp. It’s the *perfect* cover for putting our own advanced tech into our adversaries airspace with deniability, while simultaneously using the fear of aliens as a means to maintain and grow government power and military funding.
Worth a watch:
The US gov / military have had crazy advanced drones for DECADES. I saw some wild drone prototypes at Lockheed in the late 90s, and got to play with some fun simulators, and I can only guess at what we have flying about these days.
For SURE we have sub-launched and ship-launched drones of many sizes and shapes, so sightings near ships, subs, and military bases make perfect sense.
And the argument that the gov / military wouldn’t test tech like that near their own fleets without notice is laughable…I mean, seriously, have you SEEN some of the tests and shit that have been done to our own troops over the years?? OF COURSE they would test advanced shit in scenarios that mimicked real engagements as closely as possible.
When the Pentagon officially released the now famous UAP videos in 2020, I was flabbergasted. On the one hand, I wanted to believe the operators, to trust their credibility and the (limited) visual data available.
And man, the descriptions were WILD. The videos were largely meh on their own of course, it was the color added by the aviators that made it seem amazing. And that was the hitch. Where was all the other data?
The Navy very conveniently released only video, no radar telemetry, no sonar for whatever was in the water on the tic tac vid. Nada. Just video that doesn’t look like much without the commentary.
Despite reflexive skepticism, I bought the story initially, but the more I poked, the less it made sense to me. There were too many other reasonable explanations, and too much missing data.
At the same time, all I could think was, “Why these videos, why now, why like this??”
The more I dug, the more likely the PsyOp angle seemed to be, so that’s where I stand. It better fits all the available *hard* data, the timelines, and most importantly, the incentives.
I really think that, after damn near 80 years, if aliens were here, especially in numbers, we’d know with absolute certainty. They’d be talking to us, helping us, not just flitting about avoiding clear photos.
However, that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
For example, this site makes a very compelling case for, at the very least, very advanced technology underlying some of the UAPs that have been observed. And while I’m not a physicist, I have explored this topic in a fair bit of depth, and their premises and conclusions largely check out from what I know of current quantum gravity theories.
So, even if there are no aliens involved, there’s a decent chance that whatever is flitting about IS using technology well beyond what is commercially available or publicly known in the scientific community.
There are of course other angles to consider (simulation, advanced humans, time travel, interdimensional beings, etc.) but come on…those require a LOT more assumptions.
I’d LOVE to be wrong. The idea that aliens are visiting us, and that there are NHI UFOs flying around, would be wicked cool…
But I doubt it.
Hope I’m proven wrong though!