The Future As I See It, Part Deux

As anyone who knows me can attest, I love love LOVE anything future-tech 😍

I read and watch a metric fuckton of sci-fi, I follow along closely with the latest research and companies working on this stuff, I talk about it, think about it, write about it, and even dream about it.

It’s safe to say there are few things I find myself more obsessed with…and so that’s what you get to read about today. You’re welcome.

It’s hard to believe it’s been 10 years since I wrote Part One in this series, and things have changed a TON in that time (some very much as predicted, and some not).

While there is no perfect way to do this, I’d like to look at past predictions and see how well I did with the original post, and then update with what I think our trajectory will look like over the next 10 years based on where we are today.

First, let’s start with what I missed completely: Artificial Intelligence.

In 2014, the state of AI was…not great. With the exception of AlphaGo, there wasn’t anything really exciting going on. Only small, incremental advances had been made, and I didn’t really expect AI to get much better in the next 10 years, so I didn’t include this at all other than a few references to IBM’s Watson. FAIL.

Granted, less than 2 years later, in 2016, I could clearly see where AI was heading, so I was still ahead of the curve!

I also didn’t really call out longevity research at all, for the same reason. And by some arguments we still haven’t made huge advances there in the last 10 years, so maybe I consider that one a wash, though dominos are starting to tip here.

There are a number of other things where I didn’t predict a specific timeline, and we’ve not yet hit, but where I still think we’re headed eventually (most of these within the next 10 years now):

• Car ownership of questionable value: I still think we’ll get here, once self-driving becomes more ubiquitous, but we’re not very close right now.

• Phones as a standalone device won’t exist: Definitely moving in this direction, but still early. We still need a few more advances (faster mobile speeds, slim AR glasses, wireless power). But we will end up here in the next 3-5 years I think.

• HUDs would be ubiquitous: I was picturing AR being more widespread by now, and I do think we’ll be there soon enough (there are already some decent players, with a bunch more slated for 2025-2027, so probably 2-3 more years for broad adoption).

• Advertising as we know it ceases to exist: Hah, no, not yet anyway. I’d hope ad blockers would help more here, and they have made a dent, but not a big enough dent. I still think we’ll need to get to this point, as the incentive stack created by the “eyeballs on ads” business model is fucking awful and harmful to our psychology. But not there yet. I was correct though that ads would get more and more personalized.

• Less ownership, more sharing: Nope, not even close, other than perhaps with car ownership. And now I’m thinking it won’t happen until we reach proto-post-scarcity, which is still a ways out.

• Most people work remotely: Covid got us closer to this, but things have backslid a lot since. I expect it to go back the other direction soon though, at least while jobs exist, which might not be much longer. was correct though in regards to VR and holographic tech coming into play for remote work, as well as Facebook’s role in that.

• Robots will replace humans in menial jobs: If I consider AI tools non-embodied robots, then I got this part right, otherwise we’re not there yet. But advances are now happening SUPER fast in this space, so I think we’ll see this play out fully in the next few years. Optimus, Figure, and other new players are cropping up all the time now.

• All homes will have 3D printers: While I believe we’ll get here, or to something similar enough (Star Trek Replicator, nano-tech type stuff), we’re not remotely close to this today. 3D printing is still mostly a toy at the consumer level, though it is used in more sophisticated ways at the industrial level.

• Government transformed, transparency and real-time voting: We definitely have more transparency, and some countries have real-time mobile voting, but we’re WAY behind where I thought we’d be here. Hoping AI helps to speed this up, because current governments are absolute horseshit almost across the board.

• Massive changes in travel: I was really excited for the Hyperloop, which didn’t sadly go anywhere, but we have seen advances in new supersonic planes, human carrying drones, and even the potential for travel via rocket across the planet. So this is a partial win, but mostly something that will play out further down the road.

• Renewable Energy: I’d pegged solar as becoming dominant, and above 50% efficiency. Wrong on both counts, for now, but I still think it’ll happen (and I was very close; the record is 47.6% efficiency as of 2022). I was correct that nuclear is our best overall bet, and that is finally gaining mindshare, but also still a long way out everywhere but China.

• Clothing that powers our peripherals: Not really, other than a few basic prototypes / small companies, but still going to happen (unless we nail wireless power, or some sort of nano-diamond batteries, which would be preferable).

• Landfills a thing of the past: Not yet, sadly. We’re going to need really good nanotech to make this a reality.

As for what I clearly got right, albeit to varying degrees:

• Self-driving cars: we have them now, and they work, but I thought we’d be much farther along in this regard at this point.

• Electric cars would be dominant (and Tesla would be the leader): While not yet dominant, electric cars ARE dominating as a percentage of vehicle sales, especially in certain countries like Norway. And Tesla is still the clear leader. Nailed this.

• Big Data / Everything Measured and Tracked: We were already trending here in 2014, but this has continued to play out exactly as I expected. Data is now even more incredibly valuable due to AI training.

• Education increasingly important, highly personalized: I’ll consider this correct, though it is still playing out. The value of specialized education has become more and more clear, and the process of gaining those skills has become much more personalized. AI tools are speeding this up greatly now.

• Personalized, at-home medical care: Got this one partially correct. We do have the ability to do way more diagnostics from home, more personalized medical tracking and treatments, telemedicine, and even AI powered diagnostic tools to a degree. So, partially fulfilled and still trending this way.

• 3D printing + stem cells for organs, teeth, etc.: Nailed this one. The number of things we’ve been able to create via these tools and similar has increased dramatically.

• Genetic Medicine Advancements: Directionally correct here. We’ve been able to use genetic engineering to treat and cure some diseases and ailments, and to personalize certain types of medical treatments, but we’re not as far along as I thought we would be. We definitely haven’t beat cancer (though we are getting MUCH closer). We most definitely have NOT unraveled the brain or microbiome yet though, nor have we unilaterally defeated bacteria and viruses (though getting closer on both fronts thanks to AI.)

• High-speed internet available everywhere thanks to Google, SpaceX, Facebook: Google and FB dropped the ball here, but SpaceX carried the torch with Starlink. It was very clear that satellite-based internet was the future if we could get sufficient coverage and low enough latency. I was expecting everyone to have Gigabit or better by now though, so that’s disappointing. We need at least 10-100 Gbps to be ubiquitous for some things to play out as I think they will, which we’ll likely get with 6G.

• Desktops and laptops forever a minority of connected devices: This was already pretty much a given, but I’ll take it ;)

• Anonymity and Privacy going away: Again, this was pretty much a given, but seems even more so now. Pseudonymity is still prevalent, but weakening.

• Data-driven personalized diet: While I mentioned something *like* Soylent (not Soylent though, ick), I fully expected us to start tailoring our diets more based on data. I’m going to say Bryan Johnson’s Blueprint ticks this box nicely. While this sort of thing is still in its infancy, it has definitely gained a following in the last decade. Still room to improve though.

• Change in interface devices: We’ve seen some of this recently with things like Humane, Rabbit, Prophetic AI, and similar. Still early, but how we interface with technology is definitely shifting.

• Streamification of all digital media: This was already basically the case in 2014, but the trend has continued as expected.

• Luxury to the masses: I predicted more and more premium things/experiences being brought down to middle-class prices, and that has clearly continued in multiple ways. Tesla has made exotic car performance relatively cheap. Temu has cut out the drop-shipping middlemen. AI has made having a personal assistant, tutor, coach, etc. cheap as dirt. Cheap delivery is ubiquitous. So many things. This will continue of course.

• Space Mining: I had this in my “out there but cool bucket” but hot damn we actually started down this path in the last 10 years, and will have our first asteroid mining mission within a couple of years! We also have countries once again sending people to the moon, and I’d be surprised if we don’t start mining there soon-ish.

Overall, it’s fair to say I got some of the details and specific companies wrong, but I think I absolutely nailed most of the trends and players pretty damn well 😎

So, now that we have the post-mortem sorted, let’s take a look at the next 10 (ish) years. I will largely try to constrain my predictions to that time horizon, but for some things I may take liberties.

I will say this now though: I fully expect the next 10 years to be the most crazy, transformative 10 year period in the entire history of human civilization, and I say this with zero hyperbole.

We are in for a WILD fucking ride!

Artificial Intelligence

It’s only fair to start with the biggest thing I missed last time, and the giant fucking elephant in the room right now. While a relatively small portion of humanity has used the current crop of AI tools (and most of those who’ve tried them aren’t regular users much less power users), it’s more than fair to say that AI is top of mind for everyone in the tech space, and will be top of mind for everyone on the planet soon enough if it isn’t already.

With LLMs like ChatGPT and Claude, and GANs like Midjourney and Runway, we’ve just barely scratched the surface of what AI is going to accomplish in the next decade, and I’d argue that it will end up being the most transformative technology in history, but certainly of the next 10 years.

I’m still strongly predicting AGI (artificial general intelligence) in 2025/2026 (end of 2026 at the latest), which has been my prediction for the last ~2 years, and I see no reason to change that.

There’s a lot of argument about what does or doesn’t constitute AGI, so for the record, my definition of AGI is the following:

• Has genuine understanding; is not just a parrot (for vision / video in particular, must grasp how physics plays out in the real world, can handle occlusion, understands object permanence, etc.)

• Is capable of making intuitive leaps to solve problems / accomplish goals outside its training data; can connect dots that aren’t otherwise explicitly connected

• Can do, or is capable of learning to do, anything an average human can learn to do, at least as well as the average human (and ideally in the top decile or top percentile). Mentally if disembodied, and physically as well if embodied.

Now, in addition to predicting AGI within the next 1-2 years, I’m also in the fast takeoff camp, and expect that once we reach AGI, the timeline to ASI (artificial superintelligence) will be phenomenally short, constrained only by permission to self-improve, available energy and compute, and the speed of getting things done in the physical world in terms of building infrastructure and running experiments.

Considering how good AI has already gotten at coding, and how it’s being used to design new chips, new algorithms, generate synthetic data, and generate novel predictions in various scientific domains, I think it’s fair to expect that if we create AGI, and allow it to improve itself, it will be able to do so VERY quickly.

Plenty of stupid doomers who think this will be bad. They are wrong.

Anywho, moving on to how this will change, well, everything. Here are a few thoughts:

• Search-focused AI tools such as Perplexity are going to eat Google’s lunch, because Google can’t afford to cut into their ad revenue, and none of these AI tools monetize via ads. Also, in many cases, the AI tools are providing a MUCH better search experience, and this will only get better as these tools move device-side and proliferate.

• You’ll be able to have a personal AI companion who gets to know you at least as well as you know yourself, and which can help teach you new things, find things you’d like, eliminate problems, tackle tasks, and much more. A JARVIS if you will. ChatGPT with memories and Claude with their projects approximate this, but aren’t truly there yet.

• AI will make it possible for a single individual to create top tier novels, comics, art, music, high-quality movies and TV shows, video games, and much more in a fraction of the time and for a fraction of the cost. This will MASSIVELY boost human creativity, unleashing a creative wave unlike anything the world has ever seen. This is already happening today, and is accelerating.

• AI will be able to tackle many of the repetitive and mundane aspects of work (it already can in a number of fields), boosting productivity and reducing stress for many workers.

• AI is already on-par with a junior developer, and in some cases on-par with a graduate student or even PhD level expert in certain domains / capabilities. You can literally have a pocketful of geniuses for the price of a Netflix subscription!

• AI can do amazing things in the realm of personalized medicine, serving as a diagnostician, a physician augment, and a personal health advisor in multiple ways. I’ve heard numerous stories now about AI tools that have spotted and helped solve health issues that human doctors could not…

• AI is rapidly advancing biotechnology, protein folding research, drug discovery, and numerous adjacent things.

• AI is being used to design better algorithms, computer chips, chip fab processes, and to engineer stronger / more efficiently produced physical objects.

While there are many, many more areas where AI is having and will have an impact, this is a good start.

AI most definitely qualifies as a keystone technology, an innovation that unlocks entirely new possibility trees and enables a big step forward in many domains, so I fully expect the impact of AI to ripple out into all of the following technologies.

Robotics

The robotics landscape is about to undergo a massive transformation, largely due to the convergence of several key technologies. While robots have been around for decades, they've been largely confined to controlled industrial environments, performing repetitive tasks with limited adaptability.

That's all changing, rapidly.

The integration of advanced AI with robotics is creating machines that can actually understand their environment and adapt to unexpected situations. Companies like Boston Dynamics, Tesla (with Optimus), Figure, and Agility Robotics are making huge strides in creating humanoid robots that can navigate complex environments and perform varied tasks. These aren't just tech demos anymore – we're going to see real-world deployments at scale within the next 2-3 years.

The key breakthrough isn't just in the hardware (though that's improving rapidly), but in the software that allows robots to learn and adapt.

First, tools like Nvidia’s Isaac are making it MUCH faster and easier to train a robot operating model in a virtual environment that mirrors our world and the robot’s physical body in virt, which speeds up training dramatically over the physical world.

Large language models are being combined with computer vision and robotics control systems to create machines that can understand natural language instructions and translate them into physical actions. Imagine telling a robot "clean up this mess" and having it actually understand what constitutes a mess and how to properly handle different objects – that's where we're headed.

Some specific predictions for the next decade:

• Humanoid robots will become commonplace in warehouses, factories, and some retail environments by 2026-2027. They'll be able to handle a wide variety of tasks that currently require human workers, from stocking shelves to basic maintenance.

• Home robots will finally become practical and affordable. Unlike today's specialized devices (robot vacuums, etc.), these will be general-purpose helpers capable of doing laundry, dishes, basic cleaning, and simple cooking tasks. Expect this to start around 2027-2028.

• The combination of AI and robotics will lead to explosive growth in automated construction, with robots capable of working 24/7 to build houses and infrastructure much faster and more safely than human workers.

• Soft robotics will see major advances, leading to robots that can handle delicate objects and interact more safely with humans. This will be crucial for healthcare applications.

• Robot swarms will become a reality for tasks like agriculture, search and rescue, and environmental monitoring. Imagine hundreds of small robots working in concert to plant crops, monitor growth, and harvest precisely.

• The cost of robotics will drop dramatically as manufacturing scales up and designs improve, making them accessible to small businesses and eventually consumers.

Manufacturing

The future of manufacturing is going to be radically different from what we see today, primarily due to three converging trends: advanced AI, robotics, and additive manufacturing (3D printing).

While 3D printing hasn't quite lived up to the consumer-level hype I predicted in 2014, it has absolutely transformed prototyping and industrial manufacturing. The next decade will see this technology mature in ways that will fundamentally change how we make things:

• Multi-material printing will become standard, allowing single-print objects that combine metals, plastics, and electronics. This will revolutionize everything from consumer electronics to medical devices.

• Biological printing will advance significantly, enabling the creation of custom organs, tissue, and even food. We're already printing skin grafts and simple organs – expect this to expand dramatically.

• Speed and scale will increase by orders of magnitude. What currently takes hours to print will take minutes, and build volumes will grow significantly. But the real revolution in manufacturing will come from the combination of AI-driven design and robotics:

  • AI will be able to optimize designs for both function and manufacturability, creating forms that would be impossible for human designers to conceive.

  • "Digital twins" will become standard, with AI monitoring every aspect of the manufacturing process in real-time and making adjustments to optimize quality and efficiency.

• Local manufacturing will make a comeback, but not in the way we might expect. Instead of large factories, we'll see highly automated micro-factories that can produce a wide variety of products on demand, reducing the need for massive supply chains and inventory.

• Customization will become the norm rather than the exception. AI-driven design and automated manufacturing will make it possible to customize products for individual users at little to no additional cost.

• "Lights out" manufacturing will become common, with entire factories operating 24/7 with minimal human intervention.

BCI (Brain-Computer Interface)

Brain-computer interfaces represent one of the most exciting and potentially transformative technologies on the horizon. While companies like Neuralink have captured public attention, the real story is much broader and more nuanced.

The next decade will see BCIs evolve along two parallel tracks.

Non-invasive BCIs:

• Improved EEG and other external sensing technologies will make it possible to control devices with thoughts more precisely than ever before.

• Companies like Kernel and NextMind (acquired by Snap) are making huge strides in creating consumer-grade devices that can read brain activity with increasing accuracy.

• Some companies are also working on various non-invasive “read-write” devices, allowing you not only to record brain activity, but to influence with magnetic stimulation in increasingly sophisticated ways. Prophetic for example is doing interesting things here.

• Expect to see BCIs integrated into AR/VR headsets within the next 3-4 years, allowing for thought-based interface control.

• These will become common for gaming, productivity applications, and basic device control.

Invasive BCIs:

• Neuralink and competitors like Synchron will begin human trials at scale within the next 2-3 years.

• Initial applications will focus on medical uses: treating paralysis, blindness, and various neurological conditions.

• The resolution and bandwidth of these devices will improve dramatically, enabling more complex interactions.

• By the end of the decade, we'll likely see the first "elective" BCI implants for enhancement rather than medical necessity.

The real breakthrough will come from combining BCIs with AI:

• AI will learn to interpret brain signals with unprecedented accuracy, making BCIs more intuitive and capable.

• Two-way communication will become possible, allowing not just control of devices but direct feedback to the brain.

• This will enable new forms of learning and skill acquisition – imagine downloading knowledge or skills directly into your brain, Matrix-style.

• Neural networks will be able to translate thoughts into text, images, and even direct computer commands with high fidelity.

Privacy and security will be major concerns, but the potential benefits will drive rapid adoption in specific use cases:

• Medical applications will lead the way, providing clear benefits that outweigh the risks.

• Professional applications will follow, particularly in high-performance fields where split-second decisions matter.

• Consumer applications will start with gaming and entertainment but quickly expand to productivity and communication.

The long-term implications are staggering:

• Direct brain-to-brain communication could become possible by the early 2030s, if not sooner.

• The physical line between human and machine intelligence will blur.

• New forms of human enhancement and augmentation will become possible.

• The nature of consciousness and identity may need to be reconsidered as our brains become more directly integrated with digital systems.

If you want to have some fun, I highly recommend the Nexus book trilogy by Ramez Naam, as it explores this space well.

This field will move faster than many expect, driven by the convergence of AI, miniaturization, and our improving understanding of the brain. While full "mind uploading" is still likely decades away, the foundations will be laid in the next ten years.

VR / AR / MR

The next decade will see mixed reality finally achieve its long-promised potential, but perhaps not in the way many expected. While Meta has spent billions pushing their vision of the metaverse (which will happen, and will basically just be “the internet in immersive 3D,” the real breakthrough will come from the convergence of AR and AI.

Apple's Vision Pro represents an important step forward in this space, with such an impressive resolution and passthrough, but it's still just a stepping stone. Here's what's coming soon:

• AR glasses will become dramatically smaller and more powerful, eventually reaching the form factor of regular glasses by 2027-2028. Companies like Apple, Meta, and several Chinese manufacturers will lead this charge.

• The "mirrorworld"—a persistent AR layer over reality—will become ubiquitous. Every physical object, location, and person will have associated digital information that can be accessed instantly.

• AI will be the key interface for AR, understanding context and providing relevant information without explicit queries. Your AI assistant will see what you see and provide relevant insights in real-time.

• Virtual displays will replace physical screens in many contexts. Why buy a physical TV or monitor when you can have infinite virtual screens of any size? I predicted this in my 2014 article, and we are finally on the cusp of this coming to fruition :)

• Haptic feedback will improve dramatically, allowing for more convincing virtual interactions. Companies like bHaptics and Ultrahaptics are making major strides here.

VR will continue to evolve as well:

• Photorealistic rendering in real-time will become standard

• Full body tracking without external sensors will be perfected

• Resolution will exceed the human eye's ability to perceive pixels

• Form factors will shrink dramatically while field of view expands

• We might be able to solve the nausea issues for people by stimulating the inner ear with focused vibrations, which would be a huge win.

But the most interesting developments will be in how these technologies are used:

• Remote work will be transformed by photorealistic avatars and shared virtual spaces

• Education will be revolutionized by immersive, personalized learning experiences

• Entertainment will blend with reality in new ways

• Therapeutic applications will expand dramatically

• Virtual tourism and experiences will become indistinguishable from reality

Of course, it’s possible to go WAY beyond even this, into the realm of things like Personal Universes, but probably not in the next 5-10 years.

Physics

If you'd asked me a few years ago about major breakthroughs in physics, I might have been a bit pessimistic. The field seemed to be in a bit of a holding pattern, with the Standard Model stubbornly refusing to break despite our best efforts, and practical applications of quantum mechanics largely confined to specialized labs. But holy shit have things changed, and they're about to change even more dramatically.

The game-changer, unsurprisingly, is AI. We're already seeing AI make unprecedented contributions to physics, from discovering new materials to solving complex quantum problems. But what's coming is going to blow your fucking mind.

Let's start with quantum physics, because that's where some of the most exciting stuff is happening. We're finally starting to crack some of the practical applications that have been theoretical for decades. Quantum computing is becoming actually useful (more on that in its own section), but the real excitement is in areas like room-temperature superconductivity. The recent LK-99 debacle might have been a false alarm, but it sparked renewed interest and funding in the field.

Here's what I expect we'll see in quantum physics over the next decade:

• Room-temperature superconductivity will be achieved and validated within the next 5 years, revolutionizing power transmission and enabling new technologies

• The first quantum internet backbones will be deployed, offering unhackable communication

• New quantum error-correction algorithms will make quantum computers much more useful

• Quantum sensors will become commercially available, enabling new forms of medical imaging and navigation

Fusion is another area where physics is about to deliver in a big way. We've already achieved net energy gain in multiple experiments, and the timeline to commercial fusion keeps getting shorter. The major players to watch here are:

• Commonwealth Fusion Systems (MIT spinoff) with their SPARC reactor

• Helion Energy and their unique pulsed fusion approach

• First Light Fusion's projectile fusion technology

• TAE Technologies with their particle accelerator approach

I expect we'll see:

• The first commercial fusion plant operating at grid scale by 2028-2029

• Multiple competing fusion approaches proven viable

• Energy costs beginning to drop dramatically where fusion is deployed

• New fusion-based propulsion systems for space travel being developed

The really mind-bending stuff is happening in fundamental physics. AI is helping us identify patterns in particle physics data that human scientists might have taken decades to notice. I believe we're about to have a fundamental shift in how we think about reality itself. What we've been calling space-time might turn out to be an emergent property rather than a fundamental aspect of reality, with everything actually arising from a universal quantum field and its energy gradients. This could finally reconcile quantum mechanics and general relativity by showing they're both incomplete models of something much more fundamental. Dark matter and dark energy, which together make up about 95% of the universe, might turn out to be artifacts of our misunderstanding of how gravity actually works at the most fundamental level. I wrote a paper on this actually.

Key developments to watch in fundamental physics:

• Discovery that gravity is actually an emergent property of universal field gradients rather than a fundamental force

• Experimental evidence showing that time as we understand it doesn't exist, but rather represents sequences of universal field configurations

• New understanding of dark matter and dark energy as artifacts of field gradient interactions rather than actual "stuff"

• Demonstration that consciousness itself might be tied to field gradient complexity, potentially explaining quantum measurement in a new way

• Evidence that multiple dimensions aren't needed to explain reality, just a better understanding of field gradients

I find this way more compelling than string theory, which requires us to keep adding dimensions and complexity to make the math work. Sometimes the simplest answer - that we've been thinking about space, time, and gravity completely wrong - is the right one. And AI might help us see these patterns that we've been missing because we were looking at the problem wrong from the start.

The practical applications of these discoveries will be enormous. We might even start to understand consciousness from a quantum perspective – there's fascinating work being done on quantum processes in the brain that could revolutionize our understanding of consciousness and potentially lead to new types of brain-computer interfaces, though I actually think consciousness is more mundane and easily explainable.

Companies and organizations to watch:

• DeepMind's physics AI division

• Rigetti Computing's quantum-classical hybrid systems

• D-Wave's quantum annealing technology

• IBM's quantum research division

• The various teams at CERN leveraging AI for particle physics

The next decade in physics is going to be absolutely wild, and for the first time in a while, I'm optimistic that we're on the verge of breakthroughs as fundamental as those of the early 20th century. The combination of AI, improved instrumentation, and new theoretical approaches is creating a perfect storm for discovery.

Material Science

Material Science is about to hit an inflection point that will make the past 100 years of progress look like we were just warming up. We're talking about a fundamental shift in how we discover and create new materials, and it's all thanks to the convergence of AI, quantum computing, and our improving understanding of matter at the atomic level.

Traditionally, discovering new materials has been a painfully slow process of trial and error. Even with modern tools, it's taken years or decades to develop and verify new materials. That's about to change dramatically, because AI is already accelerating materials discovery by predicting molecular structures and properties before we even create them in the lab. DeepMind's AlphaFold showed us what's possible with protein structures (which was impressive enough to win a Nobel prize!); now imagine that same capability applied to every possible combination of elements and molecular structures.

Energy storage is perhaps the most crucial area where we're about to see massive breakthroughs. The holy grail has always been solid-state batteries, and we're finally on the verge of cracking that problem. Companies like QuantumScape and Solid Power are making incredible progress, and I expect we'll see the first commercial solid-state batteries in vehicles by 2026. These won't just be marginally better than current batteries—we're talking 5-10x energy density, charging times under 5 minutes, and safety levels that make current lithium-ion batteries look like dangerous experiments.

The key companies to watch in advanced materials:

• QuantumScape - Leading the charge in solid-state batteries

• Form Energy - Revolutionizing grid-scale storage with new iron-air batteries

• Prometheus Materials - Creating CO2-sequestering building materials

• Meta Materials Inc - Pioneering programmable matter

• Boston Metal - Developing electron-based materials processing

But here's where it gets really wild. We're moving beyond just discovering new materials; we're starting to design them atom by atom. Metamaterials, which gain their properties from structure rather than composition, are going to enable capabilities that seem like science fiction.

Imagine materials that can manipulate light in ways that seem impossible, or acoustic metamaterials that can create perfect soundproofing or directional audio without traditional speakers. We're not talking about incremental improvements, we're talking about fundamentally new ways of interacting with the physical world.

The construction industry is going to be completely transformed by these advances. Instead of using materials that slowly degrade and require constant maintenance, we'll have buildings made of materials that actively sequester carbon while self-repairing any damage. Transparent materials stronger than steel will change how we think about architecture, and we'll see materials that can regulate temperature without any energy input. Companies like Prometheus Materials are already showing how we can create building materials that sequester more carbon than they produce - and that's just the beginning.

I believe the most transformative developments will come from bio-inspired materials. Nature has had billions of years to figure out some amazing materials science, and we're finally getting good at copying and improving upon these designs. Spider silk-inspired fibers are already approaching commercial reality, with strength-to-weight ratios that make kevlar look primitive, while remaining completely biodegradable. But more importantly, we're learning how to create materials that can grow and self-repair like living tissue.

Major breakthroughs I expect in the next decade:

• True room-temperature superconductors (as mentioned in the physics section)

• Self-repairing consumer electronics using new composite materials

• Carbon-negative building materials that are stronger than steel

• Programmable matter that can change its physical properties on demand

• Complete elimination of single-use plastics through new biodegradable alternatives

• Materials that can efficiently extract CO2 from the air at scale

The key to all of this is the convergence of AI design capabilities, atomic-level manufacturing precision, and our improving understanding of quantum effects in materials. We're not just going to be discovering new materials - we're going to be creating materials that have never existed before, with properties that we used to think were impossible.

This is one area where I expect progress to significantly outpace most people's expectations. The combination of AI-driven discovery and improved manufacturing techniques means we can go from concept to production faster than ever before. The material world around us is about to get a lot more interesting!

Medical

The medical field is about to experience its most significant transformation since the discovery of antibiotics, and it's going to happen faster than anyone expects. The convergence of AI, genetics, and new materials is completely changing how we think about healthcare.

Let's start with genetics, because that's where some of the most dramatic advances are happening.

CRISPR and other gene editing tools have evolved from crude cut-and-paste tools to precise genetic word processors. Companies like Beam Therapeutics are now doing base editing, literally changing individual letters of genetic code with minimal off-target effects. Within the next five years, we'll be able to cure most genetic diseases before they ever cause symptoms. More importantly, we're starting to understand the genetic components of complex diseases that weren't traditionally considered genetic.

The companies leading this genetic revolution are worth watching closely:

• Beam Therapeutics - Base editing technology

• Verve Therapeutics - Genetic treatments for heart disease

• Prime Medicine - Prime editing technology

• Mammoth Biosciences - CRISPR diagnostics and therapeutics

• Altos Labs - Cellular reprogramming for longevity

Speaking of longevity, aging research has finally moved from the fringes to mainstream science, and is even capturing the attention of the everyman thanks to people like Bryan Johnson.

We now understand that aging isn't just an inevitable breakdown of systems - it's a programmed process that can be modified. Companies like Altos Labs and Calico are making remarkable progress in understanding how to reset cellular age, while others are targeting specific aspects of aging like senescent cells or mitochondrial dysfunction.

The intersection of AI and medicine is where things get really interesting. We're moving from AI that can match human doctors in narrow tasks to AI that can see patterns humans could never detect. AI systems are already better at spotting certain types of cancer in imaging studies than human radiologists, and they're getting better at predicting patient outcomes and suggesting treatments. But that's just the beginning.

One cool thing I’ve been hearing about from doctors and patients alike is the ability to create a project in Claude, upload your medical history, test results, and scans if you have them, and receive an analysis or even a differential diagnosis from AI that is typically on-par with, or even superior to, human doctors. I’ve heard multiple stories of people identifying and solving health issues via AI tools that their own doctors couldn’t solve!

Some other key developments in AI medicine to watch:

• AI-driven drug discovery cutting development time from years to months

• Personalized treatment protocols based on genetic and environmental factors

• Real-time health monitoring and predictive diagnostics (really cool things coming here from Apple Watch, such as blood pressure and blood glucose monitoring, as well as other wearable sensors for things like inflammation)

• AI-assisted surgery with superhuman precision

Cancer treatment is being revolutionized by the combination of these technologies. We're moving away from the sledgehammer approach of traditional chemotherapy toward precisely targeted treatments. The combination of genetic understanding, AI-driven drug development, and new delivery mechanisms means we'll be able to target cancer cells with unprecedented precision. Many forms of cancer will become chronic, manageable conditions rather than death sentences.

The way we interact with healthcare is also about to change dramatically. Telemedicine was accelerated by COVID, but what's coming goes far beyond video calls with doctors. Continuous health monitoring through wearable devices and smart implants will detect problems before they become serious. AI will handle routine diagnoses and monitoring, freeing up human doctors to focus on complex cases and emotional support.

The impact on autoimmune conditions and chronic diseases will be profound. We're finally beginning to understand the complex interplay between genetics, environment, and the microbiome. Companies like Viome are helping us map the microbiome in detail, while new AI tools are helping us understand how these complex systems interact. Within the next decade, we'll have effective treatments for conditions like MS, rheumatoid arthritis, and type 1 diabetes that target root causes rather than just managing symptoms.

The revolution in drug discovery deserves special attention. Traditional drug development has been absurdly slow and expensive, but AI is changing everything. Companies like Insitro and Atomwise are using AI to predict which molecules will be effective drugs before they're even synthesized. This is cutting years off development times and billions off development costs.

Critical advances I expect in the next decade:

• CRISPR-based cures for most single-gene disorders

• Effective treatments for major neurodegenerative diseases

• Personalized cancer vaccines as standard treatment

• Broad-spectrum antiviral drugs that can handle novel pathogens

• Age reversal treatments beginning clinical trials

The medical field has often been slow to change, held back by regulation and institutional inertia. But the combination of AI, genetic engineering, and new materials science is simply too powerful to resist. We're about to enter an era of medicine that would look like science fiction to doctors from just a few decades ago.

Transportation

In my 2014 post, I was pretty optimistic about how quickly transportation would transform. While we've made progress with EVs and semi-autonomous vehicles, we haven't quite hit the inflection point I expected. That's FINALLY about to change dramatically.

Self-driving technology has been a classic case of the last 20% being 80% of the work. Companies like Tesla and Waymo have proven that autonomous vehicles can handle most situations, but getting to true Level 5 autonomy—where the car can handle any situation a human driver could—has been challenging. The breakthrough is coming from an unexpected direction: the combination of AI and new sensor technologies.

The traditional approach of programming explicit rules for every possible situation is being replaced by AI systems that can actually understand the physics of the world around them. This is where my earlier predictions about general AI come into play; once we have AI systems that truly understand physics and can make intuitive leaps, the self-driving problem becomes much more tractable.

Key companies reshaping transportation:

• Tesla - Still leading in EV and autonomy integration

• Waymo - Mastering urban autonomous driving

• Rivian - Revolutionizing commercial fleet vehicles

• Joby Aviation - Making eVTOL aircraft a reality

• TuSimple - Transforming long-haul trucking

Electric vehicles are another area where progress has been steady but is about to accelerate dramatically. The breakthroughs in materials science I discussed earlier, particularly in battery technology, are going to transform what's possible. We're not just talking about incremental improvements in range and charging time - we're looking at fundamental changes in how we think about vehicle design and usage.

The real transformation will come from the convergence of autonomy, electrification, and new ownership models. When cars can drive themselves, are cheap to operate, and can charge quickly, the whole concept of personal car ownership starts to make less sense for many people. Why own a car that sits idle 95% of the time when you can summon one whenever you need it? Or own it and rent it out when you don’t need it?

Major changes I expect in the next decade:

• Full Level 5 autonomy becoming standard in new vehicles by 2027

• Electric vehicles reaching price parity with ICE vehicles across all segments

• Major cities beginning to restrict human driving in certain areas

• The emergence of autonomous vehicle subscription services replacing car ownership

• Integration of ground and air transportation systems

The urban air mobility revolution is finally about to take off (pun intended). Companies like Joby Aviation and Lilium aren't just building flying cars, they're creating entirely new transportation networks. The combination of autonomous control, electric propulsion, and advanced materials is making it possible to create aircraft that are safe, quiet, and economical enough for urban use.

Ground transportation isn't going away, but it is going to look very different. The Hyperloop concept may have been oversold, but the underlying idea of high-speed ground transportation in controlled environments is sound. I expect we'll see new forms of high-speed rail and magnetic levitation systems connecting major cities, while autonomous electric vehicles handle shorter trips, if we can get the construction costs WAY down (AI + robots should help there too).

The implications for cities are profound. When vehicles can drive themselves and coordinate with each other, we need far fewer parking spaces and can completely rethink road design. Cities will be able to reclaim huge amounts of space currently dedicated to parking and inefficiently used roads. We'll see more pedestrian areas, green spaces, and flexible use zones that can adapt to changing needs throughout the day.

Energy

The energy landscape is about to change more dramatically than it has since humans first harnessed electricity. While I was bullish on solar in my 2014 predictions, I underestimated how the combination of AI, new materials, and breakthroughs in fusion would reshape everything we thought we knew about energy.

Let's start with fusion, because that's the game-changer nobody saw coming. For decades, fusion was the punchline to a joke about technology that's always 30 years away. That changed dramatically when the National Ignition Facility achieved net gain, and now multiple private companies are racing toward commercial fusion power. The convergence of AI for plasma control, advanced materials for containment, and new approaches to magnetic fields has accelerated progress beyond what anyone expected.

The leading fusion contenders are worth watching closely:

• Commonwealth Fusion Systems - Compact tokamak design

• Helion Energy - Pulsed magnetic fusion (backed by OpenAI’s Sam Altman)

• General Fusion - Magnetized target fusion

• TAE Technologies - Particle accelerator fusion

• First Light Fusion - Projectile fusion

But here's the really interesting part; while we've been focused on fusion, solar technology has quietly revolutionized itself. The efficiency gains have been steady but relentless, and new materials science breakthroughs are pushing us toward panels that can achieve 50% efficiency. More importantly, we're seeing the emergence of new form factors: solar cells that can be printed like paper, windows that generate power while remaining transparent, and roads that can generate electricity from passing vehicles.

The energy storage revolution is happening in parallel. While everyone focuses on lithium-ion batteries, companies like Form Energy are developing iron-air batteries that could provide grid-scale storage at a fraction of the cost. When you combine cheap storage with increasingly efficient solar and wind generation, the economics of energy change completely.

Major energy shifts I expect in the next decade:

• First commercial fusion plants operating at grid scale

• Solar efficiency exceeding 50% in commercial panels

• Grid-scale storage costs dropping below $20/kWh

• Decentralized power generation becoming dominant in new construction

• Wireless power transmission becoming practical for consumer devices

The grid itself is getting a massive upgrade. The combination of AI management systems, distributed storage, and new materials for transmission is creating what's essentially a neural network for electricity. This smart grid will be able to predict and respond to demand in real-time, route power around problems automatically, and integrate multiple types of generation seamlessly.

Nuclear fission deserves a mention here too. While it's not as sexy as fusion, new small modular reactor designs and AI-assisted safety systems are making nuclear power safer and more cost-effective than ever. Companies like TerraPower and NuScale with their SMRs (small modular reactors) are showing how nuclear can be part of a clean energy future, especially as a backup for renewable sources.

The real transformation will come from the integration of all these technologies. Imagine homes that generate more power than they use, cars that can power your house during outages, and cities that can share power seamlessly based on need. The concept of an "electric bill" might become as obsolete as a telephone booth.

This isn't just about cheaper, cleaner power - it's about fundamentally changing our relationship with energy. When energy becomes abundant and nearly free, it changes everything from transportation to manufacturing to computing. It's the key enabler for many of the other advances I've discussed.

The jobs and economy impact will be significant. The energy sector has traditionally been one of the largest employers globally, and this transition will create entirely new categories of jobs while eliminating others.

Space

Remember when space was just the domain of massive government agencies and a few billionaires with expensive hobbies? Those days are so thoroughly over. The space industry is experiencing a renaissance that would make the Apollo era look conservative, and it's not just about launching rockets anymore.

SpaceX has completely transformed the economics of getting to orbit, but what's coming next is even more exciting. The combination of AI-designed engines, new materials from our earlier discussion, and more efficient propulsion systems means we're about to see another dramatic drop in launch costs. We're approaching a point where getting to orbit will be more akin to international air travel than a once-in-a-generation national project.

The companies reshaping our access to space:

• SpaceX - Continuing to lead in launch and Mars mission development

• Rocket Lab - Pioneering small satellite launches and reusability

• Blue Origin - Developing heavy-lift capabilities and space tourism

• Relativity Space - 3D printing entire rockets

• Sierra Space - Building the next generation of space planes

But launch is just the beginning. Asteroid mining, which I mentioned as "out there but cool" in my 2014 post, is about to become a real industry. Companies like Asteroid Mining Corporation and AstroForge aren't just planning missions anymore - they're launching them. The first commercial asteroid sampling missions will happen within the next two years, and once we prove the concept, it's going to explode. A single medium-sized metallic asteroid contains more platinum group metals than have ever been mined in human history.

Space manufacturing is another area that's about to take off. The combination of microgravity, vacuum, and unlimited solar energy makes space an ideal environment for certain manufacturing processes. We're going to see the first commercial space factories within the next five years, producing everything from new pharmaceuticals to perfect crystals for semiconductors.

Major developments I expect in the next decade:

• Launch costs dropping below $100 per kilogram to orbit

• First successful asteroid mining operations returning materials to Earth

• Multiple commercial space stations in operation

• Permanent lunar bases established by both government and private entities

• First human missions to Mars in serious preparation

The moon is going to be particularly interesting. We're not just going back for flags and footprints this time, we're going back to stay. The discovery of significant water ice at the lunar poles changes everything. Combined with the new materials and manufacturing technologies we discussed earlier, we can use local resources to build habitats and produce fuel, making lunar operations dramatically more practical.

Space tourism is finally becoming real, but not in the way most people expected. Yes, we'll have suborbital joy rides and luxury space hotels, but the real revolution will be in cost. Within the next decade, a trip to space will be expensive but not unthinkable for upper-middle-class people—think luxury cruise prices rather than "sell your house" prices.

The impact on Earth-based industries will be profound. When you can manufacture in zero gravity with unlimited solar power and access to materials from asteroids, entire industries will be transformed. Imagine solar power satellites beaming clean energy to Earth, or new pharmaceuticals that can only be crystallized properly in microgravity.

This is another area where AI is going to be crucial. Operating in space is complex and dangerous, and AI systems will be essential for everything from navigation to resource extraction to manufacturing. We're going to see autonomous robots building habitats on the moon before humans arrive, and AI systems managing space factories with minimal human oversight.

Quantum Computing

A decade ago, quantum computing was largely an academic exercise, with researchers debating whether we'd ever achieve anything practically useful. Now we're at an inflection point where quantum computers are starting to solve real problems, and the next few years are going to be wild.

The big breakthrough hasn't been just in the number of qubits—though that's impressive—but in error correction and quantum coherence. Companies like IBM and Google have made massive strides in maintaining quantum states long enough to do useful work, while new approaches to error correction are making quantum computers more reliable than ever before.

When I wrote the 2014 post, I didn't even mention quantum computing because it seemed so far from practical reality. Now we have companies using quantum computers for drug discovery, materials science, and optimization problems that classical computers can't touch. But what's coming next is going to make today's achievements look primitive.

The key players pushing quantum boundaries:

• IBM - Leading in superconducting quantum processors

• Google - Achieving quantum supremacy milestones

• IonQ - Ion trap quantum computing

• PsiQuantum - Photonic quantum computing

• Rigetti - Integrated quantum-classical systems

The real excitement isn't just in raw quantum computing power, but in how it's going to transform other fields we've discussed. Quantum computers are particularly good at simulating quantum systems, which means they're perfect for designing new materials, developing drugs, and optimizing chemical reactions. When you combine this with AI, you get a multiplicative effect that's going to accelerate scientific discovery dramatically.

Major developments I expect in the next decade:

• Practical quantum computers with over 1000 logical qubits

• Quantum advantage demonstrated in multiple commercial applications

• Integration of quantum and classical computing becoming standard

• First quantum-resistant encryption systems deployed widely

• Quantum internet protocols becoming operational

The impact on cryptography deserves special attention. Yes, quantum computers will break most current encryption methods, but they'll also enable new forms of unbreakable encryption. The transition will be tricky, but we're already seeing the development of post-quantum cryptography that can resist attacks from both classical and quantum computers.

The combination of quantum computing and AI is particularly interesting. While they solve different types of problems, the synergy between them is going to be powerful. AI can help optimize quantum algorithms and error correction, while quantum computers can accelerate certain types of AI calculations. This feedback loop is going to accelerate development in both fields.

We're also seeing the emergence of quantum sensing technologies that use quantum effects for unprecedented precision in measurement. This has huge implications for everything from medical imaging to navigation systems that don't rely on GPS.

Climate Tech

Climate technology is no longer just about measuring the problem or making incremental improvements - we're entering an era of active intervention and dramatic solutions. While the situation remains serious, the tools we're developing to address it are becoming exponentially more powerful.

Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology has evolved from an expensive curiosity to a practical tool for carbon removal. Companies like Climeworks and Carbon Engineering have proven the concept works; now it's about scaling and efficiency. The integration of AI optimization and new materials science is driving costs down rapidly while improving capture rates. Within five years, I expect we'll see DAC facilities that can remove carbon dioxide at costs below $100 per ton, the point where it becomes economically viable at scale.

The key climate tech companies to watch:

• Climeworks - Leading in direct air capture

• Commonwealth Fusion - Fusion energy solutions

• Form Energy - Grid-scale storage innovation

• Charm Industrial - Bio-oil carbon sequestration

• Boston Metal - Zero-carbon steel production

One of the most exciting developments is in materials transformation. The steel and cement industries have traditionally been massive carbon emitters, but new processes are changing that completely. Boston Metal's molten oxide electrolysis process can produce steel without coal, while companies like Solidia are developing concrete that absorbs CO2 as it cures. These aren't just cleaner versions of old technologies - they're fundamentally new approaches that could turn our biggest carbon sources into carbon sinks.

The oceans are becoming a major focus for climate intervention. We're developing technologies to restore coral reefs at scale, remove plastic waste automatically, and even increase the ocean's natural carbon absorption capabilities. The combination of autonomous robots, AI monitoring systems, and new materials is making it possible to tackle ocean restoration in ways that were previously impossible.

Major climate tech developments I expect:

• Direct air capture costs dropping below $50/ton within 10 years

• Large-scale deployment of ocean cleanup systems

• Carbon-negative building materials becoming standard

• AI-optimized grid systems reducing energy waste by 30%+

• Widespread deployment of advanced weather modification systems

Agriculture is another area where climate tech is making huge strides. Vertical farming, enabled by LED technology and AI optimization, is moving from niche to mainstream. When combined with synthetic biology for improved crops and precision robotics for cultivation, we're looking at a revolution in food production that could dramatically reduce both land use and emissions.

The real game-changer, though, is going to be the integration of all these technologies with AI systems that can optimize their deployment and operation in real-time. Imagine an AI that can coordinate thousands of autonomous carbon capture systems, adjusting their operation based on weather patterns, energy availability, and measured atmospheric conditions. We're not just fighting climate change anymore, we're developing an immune system for the planet.

Privacy and Digital Identity

The privacy landscape has changed dramatically since my 2014 post, where I predicted that "anonymity and privacy, at least in the digital realm, might not exist." That's proven largely true, but in ways nobody quite expected. We're not just dealing with social media tracking anymore, we're facing a world where AI can identify anyone from minimal data, predict behavior patterns, and even generate convincing deepfakes.

The rise of large language models and AI systems has created an entirely new privacy paradigm. These systems can correlate seemingly unrelated pieces of information to build detailed profiles of individuals, even from anonymized data. The concept of "anonymous data" is becoming meaningless; if you have enough data points, de-anonymization is nearly always possible.

Key companies shaping the privacy and digital identity space:

• Signal - Setting new standards for encrypted communication

• Worldcoin - Pioneering biometric identity verification

• Palantir - Leading in data integration and analysis

• Brave - Privacy-first browser

• ProtonMail - Expanding end-to-end encryption to all digital services

The blockchain world promised anonymity but has largely delivered the opposite…complete transparency with pseudonymity that's increasingly difficult to maintain. However, zero-knowledge proofs and other cryptographic advances are starting to offer real solutions for proving things about yourself without revealing underlying data.

Major developments I expect in this space:

• Universal digital identity systems becoming standard

• Biometric authentication replacing passwords entirely

• Personal AI agents managing our digital presence

• Legal frameworks catching up to technological reality

• New forms of privacy-preserving computation

The real challenge isn't technical; we actually have the tools to create very secure, private systems. The challenge is social and economic. Our current digital economy is built on surveillance capitalism, and unwinding that while maintaining services people want to use is going to be tricky.

The emergence of personal AI assistants is going to force this issue. When you have an AI that knows everything about you and acts as your interface to the digital world, privacy and security become paramount. We're going to need new frameworks for managing these relationships and protecting this incredibly sensitive data.

The next decade will see an interesting tension between the push for more surveillance and control (from both governments and corporations) and the growing technical capability for true digital privacy. I expect we'll end up with a hybrid system, with completely public personas for some aspects of life, with strong privacy preservation for others.

The metaverse and AR layers we discussed earlier add another fascinating wrinkle to this. When everything you see and do is mediated through digital systems, privacy becomes both more important and more difficult to maintain. We're going to need entirely new paradigms for managing identity and privacy in these mixed reality spaces.

Education

Traditional education is about to experience its most significant transformation since the printing press. While I predicted in 2014 that education would become more personalized and accessible, what's coming goes far beyond that. The combination of AI tutors, mixed reality, and brain-computer interfaces is going to completely reshape how we think about learning.

AI tutors are already showing capabilities that match or exceed human teachers in many subjects. They can adapt to each student's learning style, pace, and interests in ways that would be impossible for a human teacher managing a classroom of 30 students. But what's really interesting is how they're starting to understand and correct fundamental misconceptions in real-time, something that even the best human teachers struggle with.

The key companies reshaping education:

• Khan Academy (with Khanmigo) - AI-enhanced learning

• Minerva - Reimagining higher education

• VIPKid - Globalizing personalized education

• Synthesis - AI tutoring system

• Eureka Labs - Forthcoming EDU startup from Andrej Karpathy

The traditional model of "go to school for X years, then work for the rest of your life" is dying (finally, thank fuck). Continuous learning isn't just going to be an option; it's going to be essential. As AI and automation transform the job market, the ability to quickly learn new skills will become the most valuable skill of all (at least until AI + robots are doing ALL the jobs lol).

Major shifts I expect in education:

• AI tutors becoming standard for all students

• Mixed reality classrooms enabling immersive learning

• Direct brain-computer interfaces accelerating skill acquisition

• Traditional degrees being replaced by skill portfolios

• Real-time translation removing language barriers in education

The physical classroom isn't going away entirely, yet, but its purpose will change. Instead of being the primary place where learning happens, it will become a space for collaboration, social development, and hands-on experiences that can't be replicated virtually. Think less lecture hall, more maker space.

The integration of brain-computer interfaces with education is particularly fascinating. While we're not quite at the "I know kung fu" moment from The Matrix, we are approaching the point where we can dramatically accelerate learning by optimizing how information is presented to the brain. Combined with AI that understands exactly how each person learns best, this could reduce learning times by orders of magnitude.

The implications for society are profound. When high-quality education becomes available to everyone, anywhere, at any time, and can be personalized to each learner's needs, we remove one of the biggest barriers to human potential. The challenge won't be access to education, it will be helping people choose what to learn in a world of infinite possibilities.

Economics

The economic system we've built our society around is about to undergo its most dramatic transformation since the industrial revolution. While I touched on some economic changes in my 2014 post, I dramatically underestimated how quickly AI and automation would force us to rethink the entire concept of work, value, and scarcity.

We're rapidly approaching what could be called a "proto-post-scarcity" economy. Not quite the full post-scarcity of The Culture series or Star Trek, but something transitional. AI and automation are making it possible to produce many goods and services at costs approaching zero, while advances in energy (fusion, advanced solar) and materials science are reducing scarcity in the physical world.

The key organizations shaping this transition:

• OpenAI - Democratizing AI capabilities

• DeepMind - Pushing the boundaries of AI systems

• Anthropic - Developing (far too) safe AI frameworks (they ware way, WAY too safety focused, I’m not a fan of their approach even though Claude is still a very useful tool)

• Basic Income Earth Network - UBI research and advocacy (though I’ve argued that UBI isn’t going to work, other than *maybe* as a short-term stopgap.)

• Various national banks exploring Universal Basic Services (this, UBS, I think is the right way forward as opposed to UBI)

The traditional relationship between labor and capital is breaking down. When AI can perform most cognitive tasks and robots can handle most physical tasks, what role does human labor play? This isn't just about job displacement - it's about fundamentally rethinking how we organize society and distribute resources.

Major economic shifts I expect:

• Implementation of UBI in multiple developed nations (again, this isn’t going to work other than short-term)

• Transition to Universal Basic Services in some regions

• Dramatic reduction in traditional employment

• New forms of value creation emerging

• Shift from ownership to access-based models

The concept of Universal Basic Services (UBS) is particularly interesting. Instead of just providing a basic income, some economists argue we should provide basic services—housing, healthcare, education, transportation, internet access—as public utilities. Combined with UBI, this could provide a foundation for people to pursue meaningful work rather than just struggling to survive.

The transition won't be smooth. Our current economic systems are built around scarcity and competition, and the shift to abundance will be disruptive. We're likely to see significant resistance from those who benefit from the current system, but the mathematics of AI and automation make this transition inevitable. I’ve written about how I think the shift to AI + robots doing all the work transition will play out here.

The parallels to science fiction are striking. In the Bobiverse series, we see self-replicating systems creating abundance. In The Culture, AI Minds manage resources while humans pursue their interests. We're not quite there yet, but we're heading in that direction faster than most people realize. I think we’ll see something like this come to full fruition within 10 years, at least in some places.

Government

Government systems are about to be forced into their biggest transformation since the invention of democracy. While I predicted in 2014 that we'd see more transparency and real-time voting, what's coming goes far beyond that. The combination of AI, blockchain technology, and new communications systems is going to fundamentally change how we think about governance.

The current model of representative democracy was designed for a world of slow communication and limited information processing capability. When it took weeks to get a message across the country and was impossible to gather everyone's opinion quickly, it made sense to elect representatives to make decisions. Those constraints no longer exist, but our systems haven't caught up.

Key organizations driving government transformation:

• Estonia's e-Government initiatives

• Singapore's Smart Nation program

• DemocracyLab - Digital democracy tools

• Aragon - Decentralized governance platforms

• China's AI governance experiments

The integration of AI into governance is inevitable but tricky. AI can process vast amounts of data to model policy outcomes and identify optimal solutions, but we need to be incredibly careful about how we implement this. The goal should be to augment human decision-making, not replace it entirely.

Major changes I expect in governance:

• Real-time citizen feedback systems becoming standard (we NEED this, as it will neuter gerrymandering and enable FAR easier voting, including real-time voting on various issues, eliminating the need for corrupt representative systems of government)

• AI-assisted policy modeling and implementation

• Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) for some government functions

• Blockchain-based voting and record-keeping

• Automated enforcement of simple regulations

The most interesting developments will come from the combination of AI governance tools and new forms of democratic participation. Imagine systems that can simulate the outcomes of proposed policies in detail, explain those outcomes to citizens in personalized ways, and gather informed feedback from millions of people in real-time.

The challenge won't be technical, it will be social and political. The technologies to create more efficient and responsive governance systems already exist. The hard part will be managing the transition from current systems while ensuring that new systems remain truly democratic and resistant to manipulation.

Conclusion

Looking back at my 2014 predictions, I got some things right and others wrong, but the general direction was clear—technology is transforming our world at an accelerating pace. What I underestimated back then was the role of AI in this transition and near-term timeframe. Turns out, AI is not only feasible, but is also a keystone technology.

The next decade is going to be the most transformative period in human history.

We're not just looking at incremental improvements in existing technologies, we're looking at fundamental changes to how we live, work, and organize our society. The combination of AGI, fusion power, new materials, quantum computing, and biotechnology advances is going to create possibilities that would seem like magic to people from just a few decades ago.

Some of these changes will be challenging. The transition from our current economic and political systems to whatever comes next won't be smooth, and the same goes for the shift from working to automation. But the potential benefits—elimination of scarcity, dramatic extension of human capabilities, solutions to climate change, expansion into space—are worth the effort.

The key will be ensuring that these advances benefit everyone, not just a select few. That's going to require careful thought and planning, but I'm optimistic. The tools we're developing have the potential to solve many of humanity's longstanding problems…if we use them wisely.

Let’s check back in another 10 years and see how I did this time :)

Let me know what you think in the comments!